By Jibrin Ibrahim

If Nigeria had become bankrupt and those in charge of the country would not tell the story, it must have been because of the real story – that there is a long list of people in government benefitting from the theft.

Maybe the real story is the one being shouted from the roof top by Honourable Gudaji Kazaure, a member of the House of Representatives, who has raised an alarm about the theft of stamp duty proceeds of N89 trillion. He said that the same Governor Emefiele is essentially the beneficiary of the biggest fraud in Nigeria’s history as the CBN only sends 60% of the stamp duty revenue to the government, with the remaining 40% going into the wallets of individuals…

I wish I knew the real story of the naira redesign situation. We can recall that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had on 6 December announced a new policy limiting over-the-counter cash withdrawals by individuals and corporate entities, and asking Nigerians to accept a new reality – that future life would be spent in a cashless society. Then on Wednesday, the amounts involved were raised following concerns that Nigeria is a cash society and tens of millions of Nigerians are without bank accounts, and have no alternative mode of payment for personal needs and in conducting petty businesses. The Central Bank has one of the best research departments in the country and certainly knows the low level of banking outreach in the country. Why then did it insist on the immediate implementation of a cashless society within weeks, over the Christmas holidays and an impending election? What is the real story involved?

The upward review of the withdrawal limits has come after the National Assembly asked the Central Bank to adjust this considerably in response to public outcry on the policy. The new directive now allows individuals to withdraw up to N500,000 weekly and organisations, N5 million weekly. The initial limit was N100,000 for individuals and N500,000 for corporate entities weekly. Now, the Central Bank suddenly: ”Recognizes the vital role that cash plays in supporting underserved and rural communities and will ensure an inclusive approach as it implements the transition to a more cashless society.” They knew this all along, so what is the story?

…numerous sponsored “civil society” organisations that had not been known to exist previously have emerged, holding mega press conferences and stating that politicians are behind the arrest attempt, because the real goal of the policy is to deny politicians the cash to bribe voters, and for this sin Emefiele must go to jail. The government has neither confirmed nor denied why Emefiele must go to jail. Someone should tell us the real story.

We know there is a story that is not being told because since the matter came up, President Buhari has been openly very supportive of this cashless society policy and has defended Governor Emefiele publicly. At the same time, the secret police that works for the President, the Department of State Services (DSS), has been making desperate attempts to arrest the CBN governor for terrorism financing and he barely escaped their fangs, as a judge refused to issue an arrest warrant to lock him up. He now appears to be in hiding. Meanwhile, numerous sponsored “civil society” organisations that had not been known to exist previously have emerged, holding mega press conferences and stating that politicians are behind the arrest attempt, because the real goal of the policy is to deny politicians the cash to bribe voters, and for this sin Emefiele must go to jail. The government has neither confirmed nor denied why Emefiele must go to jail. Someone should tell us the real story.

Maybe the real story is the one being shouted from the roof top by Honourable Gudaji Kazaure, a member of the House of Representatives, who has raised an alarm about the theft of stamp duty proceeds of N89 trillion. He said that the same Governor Emefiele is essentially the beneficiary of the biggest fraud in Nigeria’s history as the CBN only sends 60% of the stamp duty revenue to the government, with the remaining 40% going into the wallets of individuals, and that the apex bank has not remitted that money as tax. He told us that President Muhammadu Buhari had established a presidential committee in June to collect stamp duty from 2015 to the present, to which he has been serving as secretary because of concerns about the enormous sums that have not been handed over to the authorities. The President, he noted, wants to pay off the country’s obligations before leaving office and that the money in question would have gone a great way towards doing so. Kazaure then expressed his sadness that he has been prevented from seeing the President to forward his report, and that we Nigerians should tell the President to see him. I confess I don’t understand this narrative. Even his boss, Femi Gbajabiamila, the speaker of the House of Representatives, declared to State House correspondents after a private meeting with President Muhammadu Buhari at the Presidential Villa in Abuja on Tuesday, that the House knows nothing about this story. Nonetheless, believe me, there must be a big story here too that someone should tell us properly.

Then the side story emerged that Mr Elumelu had narrated the story because he had bought a small oil well, only to realise that almost all his oil was being stolen and he could not even service the debt he had incurred from banks to buy the well, so he had to spill the beans. That was when the Nigerian government realised it too had to confess the country that it had become bankrupt due to the unbelievably high magnitude of oil theft.

The big story of the year was told by businessman and Chairman of Heirs Holdings, Mr Tony Elumelu, way back in March, when he bemoaned the fact that Nigeria was losing over 95% of its oil production to thieves. “How can we be losing over 95% of oil production to thieves? Look at the Bonny Terminal that should be receiving over 200,000bpd barrels of crude oil daily, instead it receives less than 3,000 barrels, leading the operator, Shell to declare force majeure.” The percentage loss is so large that it should have been the big story long before Elumelu tweeted about it, hence I thought it was a farce. Then, the Group Managing Director of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, Mele Kyari corroborated Elumelu’s claim that Nigeria is losing 95% of oil production to thieves at the Bonny Terminal in Rivers State. How could Nigeria’s biggest story emerge from an Elumelu Twitter thread in March? Mr Kyari then further disclosed that the country lost $4 billion to theft at the rate of 200,000 barrels per day in 2021. He added that the country already lost $1.5 billion so far in 2022 at that point, because the vandalism had escalated. I was in shock. In every other country in the world where the main source of revenue is compromised to this level, it would be the only item in the news, in the agenda of the President, the National Assembly and security services.

Then the side story emerged that Mr Elumelu had narrated the story because he had bought a small oil well, only to realise that almost all his oil was being stolen and he could not even service the debt he had incurred from banks to buy the well, so he had to spill the beans. That was when the Nigerian government realised it too had to confess the country that it had become bankrupt due to the unbelievably high magnitude of oil theft. We might have had to wait for the next government to come in next year before hearing that story. If Nigeria had become bankrupt and those in charge of the country would not tell the story, it must have been because of the real story – that there is a long list of people in government benefitting for the theft.

A professor of Political Science and development consultant/expert, Jibrin Ibrahim is a Senior Fellow of the Centre for Democracy and Development, and Chair of the Editorial Board of PREMIUM TIMES.